It has not only been noticed in the Upper Left corner of the US, but across the globe that the bulk wine market is showing signs of new activity and dislodging from its inertia of quarters 1-3 of 2024.
Brokers/bulk producers from Chile, Italy, California, and France all report increased activity in the bulk wine space, universally beginning in the fall of 2024 and continuing to show progressive rates of augmentation into the 2025 calendar.
Pricing on large volumes is historically low. As one bulk producer exclaimed on a recent call, “That’s a terrible offer, but it’s SOMETHING!” The substance of this sentiment being that activity had been so slow, that any offer is gaining focused attention in this oversupply market.
Supply and demand curves barely intersected in the first 3 quarters of 2024 due to all of the finished goods sales challenges faced by wineries.
Buyers appear to be capitalizing on the unique pricing opportunities, and anecdotal/individual reporting of sales ticking up over the last 6 months among some businesses. Reports of double digit sales growth is far from universal, but is certainly extant among some operations.
In his Unified Symposium presentation, Danny Braeger reminded us that nearly half of wine consumers exist in the sub $15/bottle price point. Although this market has decreased significantly in volume, it remains the industry’s biggest audience, and opportunists are capitalizing on bulk wine pricing to present highly profitable products to this audience.
Is it possible that we have found the bottom and are beginning to bubble up towards the surface?
It can be said that true wisdom begins at the point of saying “I don’t know”, and so we begin to notice and increase in our awareness.
In that spirit, I don’t know if we are returning to flotation or merely bouncing along a new median point, but the sales are welcome, to a degree, and we are encouraged by these small trends.